Collect this post as an NFT.
I figured I'd toss my forecast rationale for the 2023 Eurovision competition. I actually didn't score so hot with a Brier score of 1.1211... oof. Essentially a little worse than a cointoss owing to my neglect of this question. I wish I had analyzed the songs earlier rather than just rely on prior results. C'est la vie.
You can listen to the tracks here.
FINAL PROBABILITY
ANSWER:
17% (-3%) Finland
9% (+2%) Norway
39% (-6%) Sweden
5% (-8%) Ukraine
30% (+15%) Another country
Having listened to every track, and from the perspective of a recovering touring musician... here are some thoughts:
Who the Hell is Edgar is weird, but has some tasty elements.
Heart of Steel is easy to see as an obvious nod to the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works siege. Not sure if the timing or sentiments are right this time around. It hit my feels on a few occasions but didn't build into an all encompassing narrative. More of a World Cup jingle or Coca-Cola ad. Not as heroic as it could be, not as sympathetic, not as defiant as it should be. Just sorta Ed Hardy aesthetic. 1.8mil
Queen of Kings renaissance faire girl power, and that is a compliment.
Tattoo probably a favorite owing to wider listenership alone. 53.5 mil plays.
Évidemment very very French. Representative, but modern. One of the few songs that actually feels like its source country. 7.7mil
Cha Cha Cha is annoying as hell, but opens up into something that punches above its weight. Would be surprised yet unsurprised if this won, and would only reinforce my irritation with wider musical tastes. That said, it's like a Finnish Oliver Tree, and I hated it so hard that I started to like it. The bridge is the best part. And the weird hyperpop departure.
Breaking My Heart is my dark horse, I think this is the only track that feels relevant and has the TikTok zoomer backing. Really probably one of the few I actually enjoyed.
Blood and Glitter... leave it to zee Germans, at least it's unique! Like Rammstein and Andrew WK with some metal, disco and Future Islands elements.
DGT gets some raw uniqueness points. Feels like the song structure and mixing coming out of Korea.
Dance is good from a complete funk groove perspective. Not a winner, but like a Euro Bruno Mars meets The Midnight.
We Are One ...if you wanted to know what it'd sound like if James Blunt was in U2, then you are in luck.
Aijā into this... got some nice Death From Above 1979/Mutemath undertones to pair with obscure 2000's indie band stylings.
Because of You nails that 90's fashion techno pride pop. Actually refreshing and easily would've been a massive hit staple 30 years ago. Excellent bridge and satisfying chorus. Wouldn't be surprised if the live performance nails it or falls flat.
Mama ŠČ! is a weird one, totally into it.
I enlisted my buddy and guitfiddle player to weigh in unbiased. I'll update if I get his take.
The bookmakers takes are surely to be considered, they've got their ways but their confidence in Cha Cha Cha is disturbing. Including some Spotify streams with a list of contenders broken down by semis and those that already are included in the final.
In the time I've started my deep dive many artists have been eliminated which has given me some opportunity for reflection. Sorry Reiley :(
Semi 1
1 Norway Alessandra "Queen of Kings" Qualified 44.2mil
2 Malta The Busker "Dance (Our Own Party)" Did not qualify 1.4mil
3 Serbia Luke Black "Samo mi se spava" (Само ми се спава) Qualified 2.4mil
4 Latvia Sudden Lights "Aijā" Did not qualify 1.6mil
5 Portugal Mimicat "Ai coração" Qualified 2mil
6 Ireland Wild Youth "We Are One" Did not qualify 1.5mil
7 Croatia Let 3 "Mama ŠČ!" Qualified 1.8mil
8 Switzerland Remo Forrer "Watergun" Qualified 2mil
9 Israel Noa Kirel "Unicorn" Qualified 6.4mil
10 Moldova Pasha Parfeni "Soarele și luna" Qualified 2mil
11 Sweden Loreen "Tattoo" Qualified 53.5mil
12 Azerbaijan TuralTuranX "Tell Me More" Did not qualify 0.85mil
13 Czech Republic Vesna "My Sister's Crown" Qualified 6.4mil
14 Netherlands Mia Nicolai Dion Cooper "Burning Daylight" Did not qualify 5.5mil
15 Finland Käärijä "Cha Cha Cha" Qualified 18.7mil
Semi 2
1 Denmark Reiley "Breaking My Heart" 2.6mil
2 Armenia Brunette "Future Lover" Qualified 2.1mil
3 Romania Theodor Andrei "D.G.T. (Off and On)" 1mil
4 Estonia Alika "Bridges" Qualified 2.1mil
5 Belgium Gustaph "Because of You" Qualified 3.3mil
6 Cyprus Andrew Lambrou "Break a Broken Heart" Qualified 2mil
7 Iceland Diljá "Power" 1.5mil
8 Greece Victor Vernicos "What They Say" 0.99mil
9 Poland Blanka "Solo" Qualified 10.4mil
10 Slovenia Joker Out "Carpe Diem" Qualified 2.3mil
11 Georgia Iru "Echo" 1.2mil
12 San Marino Piqued Jacks "Like an Animal" 0.4mil
13 Austria Teya and Salena "Who the Hell Is Edgar?" Qualified 4.7mil
14 Albania Albina and Familja Kelmendi "Duje" Qualified 0.4mil
15 Lithuania Monika Linkytė "Stay" Qualified 1.1mil
16 Australia Voyager "Promise" Qualified 1.8mil
Final
France La Zarra "Évidemment" 8mil
Italy Marco Mengoni "Due vite" 49.1mil
Serbia Luke Black "Samo mi se spava" (Само ми се спава) 2.4mil
Spain Blanca Paloma "Eaea" 3.8mil
Germany Lord of the Lost "Blood & Glitter" 3.4mil
Ukraine Tvorchi "Heart of Steel" 2-4mil (split among versions)
United Kingdom Mae Muller "I Wrote a Song" 7.1mil
Cumulative streams: 266
I do think Évidemment, Because of You, Solo and Tattoo have strong chances. After the fact, another strong factor I'm leaning on is earworminess.