I was happy to have had a hunch about Yevgeny Prigozhin prior to the recent "mutiny." I proposed the question in depth and it was added to GJOpen's "2023 in the News" challenge. You can view it and try your hand at it here.
Current crowd consensus:
I had initially proposed more nuanced questions on 6 June 2023, but truthfully, I'm satisfied with their simplified version of my near MECE (mutually exclusive, completely exhaustive) suggestion:
What will happen next in regards to Private Military Company Wagner Group's founder Yevgeny Prigozhin?
Resolves: 31 Dec, 2024
Context: PMC Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin has been publicly critical of the Kremlin with uncharacteristic impunity (https://www.businessinsider.com/wagner-boss-prigozhin-kremlin-planted-mines-blow-up-troops-bakhmut-2023-6 https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1777772/wagner-feud-Yevgeny-Prigozhin-vladimir-putin-ukraine-war)
He has been critical of the Russian regular armed forces and well as leadership in Moscow. His prominence has led analysts to consider his fate and greater aspirations: (https://www.businessinsider.com/wagner-boss-says-kremlins-victory-claims-are-science-fiction-2023-6 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yevgeny_Prigozhin#Complaints_and_conflicts)
Outcomes:
Prigozhin will be dismissed from Russian military leadership and remain in Russia
Prigozhin will be dismissed from Russian military leadership and seek sanctuary outside of Russia
Prigozhin will voluntarily step down as leader of Wagner PMC
Prigozhin will stage a failed coup of the Russian Federation government
Prigozhin will stage a successful coup of the Russian Federation government
None of these will occur
Will Private Military Company Wagner Group's founder Yevgeny Prigozhin make an attempt at the removal of Vladimir Putin as president of the Russian Federation?
Resolves: 1 Apr, 2024
Context: PMC Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin has been seen as a potential successor to Vladimir Putin, or at very least, a threat to his position within Russian political leadership. Opinions on how this might transpire have been debated by analysts who see this as a possibility.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_presidential_elections https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/26/opinion/russia-putin-ukraine-wagner.htmlOutcome:
Prigozhin will stage a failed coup of the Russian Federation government
Prigozhin will stage a successful coup of the Russian Federation government
Prigozhin will announce a run for the Russian Federation presidency and be elected
Prigozhin will announce a run for the Russian Federation presidency and not be elected
None of these will occur
My initial prediction was based on his near magical impunity i.e. I don't know why, but he has gotten away with so much. At this point, I reckon he will either be removed from leadership or flee either soon or not at all. Hence I am heavily weighting the nearest and longest term buckets.
Some of my previous comments are as follows:
Why do you think you're right? (optional)
We can assume the guy is pretty well insulated in more ways than one. He behaves like the guy at a bar that is running his mouth off because his buddies just happen to be the entire varsity defensive line. He gives off mobster vibes and I don’t get the impression he is a reckless slouch that would make a move without the proper chess pieces lining up (as well as contingencies for his contingencies.) Case in point, Putin’s plane recently left Moscow either to relocate Putin (or give the appearance of relocation… *not sure how wise that movement choice was.)
In my mind, this will either resolve quickly or not at all. The first bucket could be a fluke occurrence, or lucky break, but appears to be too soon to satisfy.
What if Prigozhin has a sweetheart back channel deal with the US? It’s a compelling carrot to dangle the prospect of world peace in exchange for “king for life” while a true Russian democracy is assembled.
Why might you be wrong?
Everyone is entitled to my opinion…
Any and all perspectives are welcomed, because your guess is as good as mine. As the spit hit the fan, I followed my rationale with this:
That was interesting. This guy has more Teflon than Trump. Might be a diversion to stall for him to suffer an unfortunate “accident.”
Charges dropped, and as punishment, he must relocate to Belarus.
With millions in gold and resource royalties under the care of Wagner, the question is, what gives him such immunity in all this? This is either total chaos or incredibly calculated.
So we will see.
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